The AI Adoption Curve
AI is a disruptive technology. It will change many industries. However, we are in an awkward space where adoption is filtering through from early adopters to the mainstream — this slow adoption is beginning to be felt by founders and investors - especially at an organisational level where change is slow and incentives great to retain the status quo.
It's easy to assume in this middle phase that there is a demand problem — that you are creating something people don't want — or there has been a misidentification of a problem - that the pain isn't real or deeply felt. But actually it's an adoption curve problem.
Every time disruptive technology has been introduced, it follows the same pattern: early hype, middle resistance, mass integration. It's the same with AI — but arguably even more so because of the speed at which it can change things fundamentally challenges the status quo. Mostly people resist change - until it seems inevitable.
The revolutionary nature of AI - more so than any other technology in history - is arguably making the gap between early adopters and mainstream adoption even more stark. However, ultimately — just like every other era of technological change — AI will be adopted and integrated at scale.
Yes, even at the organisational level. Yes, even in traditional industries that prefer other ways of doing things. Because it saves money, saves time, and improves business outcomes. Technology is always adopted when it achieves these things.
Investors are in a space where, if they don't see nuance, they may get jittery about slow usage and adoption. But they just need to be patient as getting through this adoption phase is a matter of time, training and education.
The pain and problem does exist and it wants to be solved. But in certain industries like fashion, it's been there forever - without any realistic solution - so people just lived with the pain. That's what people do when there is an inefficiency and no known way of solving it. They live with it, work around it, work in despite of it.
But as soon as there is a way to solve the pain, it's human nature to select the easier, more comfortable, and less painful approach.
When zips were invented, people used zips. When design software like Adobe was invented, people used that instead of — or in addition to — pencil and paper. When computers were invented people eventually learned how to use them no matter how much they claimed they were wedded to the status quo. It's the same with AI.